The Political Climate in 2024
The winds of change are blowing ...
The winds of change are blowing through the political climate bringing with them a fresh breeze of new ideas and perspectives. And as the political climate changes and shifts, it's important to stay informed and engaged with our eyes to the horizon.
2024 Election
As we careen toward the Election of 2024, it's crucial to recognize that climate change policy will be a significant issue for voters, regardless of their current awareness or concern. The impact of climate change policy on various aspects of our lives, such as geopolitics, energy, and inflation, will make it an unavoidable topic that demands an informed electorate. The Earth’s climate is an average of the daily weather events on a variety of time scales, and in a way, the prevailing political climate is the aggregation of discrete events that reflect the mood of the population. Inevitably, the level of participation or interest depends upon the impacts of policy outcomes on affected communities.
With the primary season effectively over, it looks like a rematch of the 2020 Election with President Biden and former President Trump on the ballot with the possible addition of Robert F. Kennedy or a “No Labels” candidate like Joe Manchin. Climate change policy will be a critical component of the 2024 campaign season since it intersects with most important issues associated with economics and foreign policy.
Reporting on the current political climate is a daunting project that requires institutional knowledge of the last few decades of climate policy history as well as exceptional science and numerical literacy.
It’s critical to be able to read a scientific study and know how to code in order to examine claims with the underlying data. Data journalism is difficult but unlocks a wealth of valuable insights and information that can greatly enhance the quality of reporting and storytelling. By analyzing and presenting data in a clear and engaging manner, data journalists can uncover hidden patterns, trends, and connections that would otherwise remain obscured. This will increase trust between the writer and reader who can see something with their own eyes through effective visualizations like charts and maps.
The public should not need a “secret decoder ring” to understand a complex topic that could drastically affect their pocketbook or freedom.
Climatism and the Media
The left’s climate change policy agenda is based upon the notion of climatism and is disruptive to the American economy, national security, and way of life.
However, citizens and policymakers are largely reliant upon often biased corporate media outlets for information about the intersection of climate science, extreme weather, energy, and politics. The primary reason is that few alternative but trustworthy sources of news information exist in this space.
In a healthy democracy, it is essential that we are able to evaluate ideas and policies in an impartial manner, regardless of our personal ideological beliefs or partisan affiliations. This open-minded approach fosters an environment of constructive dialogue and debate, allowing for the best possible solutions to emerge and ultimately benefiting society as a whole.
Networks of well-funded climate activists work with tech companies, including social and corporate media, to censor speech unhelpful to green advocacy. There is an evolving definition of “climate denial” that seeks to control the prevailing narrative.
Journalists in the climate reporting space receive grants or donations of millions of dollars to generate their products suggesting there is not an organically profitable model for this content. There is intense competition for the same small population of readers that expect a certain type of “fan service” on the climate left. We need something else.
To achieve the best policy outcomes, a healthy marketplace of ideas is required with a well-informed and reasoned debate from multiple viewpoints. The mantra that the science is settled is insufficient to declare policies as settled as well.
We should not base national economic and geopolitical policy upon the irrational fear of bad weather or slave to climatist metrics like global temperature. However, finding rich contextual analysis is next to impossible with today’s gatekeepers. Also, people just do not have the time in their busy lives to scroll X or mine the depths of the Internet.
What is The Political Climate
This is a new media platform, one operated by a new and younger generation of technically savvy climate realists, needed to not only fill the gaps in the current corporate media landscape, but also examine counter-narratives based upon facts, data visualizations, analysis, A.I. tools, and opinions compelling to moderates and conservatives.
Informed Democracy with fair and balanced climate reporting
Fair and Balanced: Analyze the prevailing narratives in climate reporting, presenting viewpoints that challenge elements of climatism and its impact on the American economy, national security, and way of life.
Overcome Media Censorship and Bias: Address the issues of media bias and censorship, particularly in climate science reporting, and the influence of well-funded climate activist networks and tech companies in shaping public discourse.
Be Interesting and Fun: science does not need to be an urgent, overwhelming emergency but also the pursuit of knowledge of the Earth. Climate science is incredibly complex from the atmosphere’s extreme weather to ocean circulations. Many people absolutely love discussing the weather and enjoy learning about how the Earth’s climate works. Rather than exhaust the reader with endless doomerism, we will engage with the richness of Earth’s natural wonders in an optimistic manner but with a sense of humor to keep us grounded.
Embrace new technology to tell stories
What is climatism and why is it bad?
Professor Mike Hulme has been at the forefront of thinking and writing about climatism for many years e.g. see this post on global temperatures and climatism. His book “Climate Change Isn’t Everything” is a must read as it is highly accessible and engaging storytelling.
Climatism is an ideology and that believes climate change is an existential threat to humanity and requires drastic and urgent action to address it.
However, while addressing climate change, policymakers, academics, activists, and the media could be undermining democratic principles:
1. Prioritizing climate change over other issues:
Focusing too heavily on climate change can lead to neglecting other pressing issues, such as economic inequality, social justice, and public health.
This could create a situation where the democratic process is skewed towards one issue, potentially undermining the rights of citizens to have their voices heard on other matters.
2. Centralization of power:
Addressing climate change often requires large-scale, coordinated action, which can lead to increased centralization of power. This could result in reduced local autonomy and reduced public participation in decision-making.
Command and control economic and social decisions such as resource allocation, deindustrialization, and degrowth.
3. Limiting free speech:
The narrow focus on climate change can lead to restrictions on free speech, as certain viewpoints are deemed unacceptable or dangerous. This can be seen in the recent push for censorship on social media platforms, where climate change skepticism or criticism is often targeted. There is an evolving definition of climate denial to encompass opposition to adoption of policies like Net Zero renewable energy.
4. Disenfranchisement of certain groups bearing the brunt of climate policy costs:
The enormous costs of addressing climate change can disproportionately affect certain groups, such as low-income and minority communities. This can lead to increased marginalization and disenfranchisement of these groups, undermining the democratic principle of equal representation.
Climate justice is a misnomer for the harms that climatism cause to communities that can least afford expensive policies.
5. Authoritarianism:
The urgency of the climate crisis could lead to authoritarian measures, where governments take drastic actions to address the issue without the consent of the governed. This could lead to a situation where democratic principles are eroded in the name of addressing climate change.
From petty tyrants to nameless and faceless bureaucrats, the erosion of democratic principles is threated throughout every segment of society.
6. Impact on National Sovereignty:
International agreements and policies focused on climate goals can sometimes impinge on national sovereignty. The adoption of policies dictated by international bodies or agreements can be seen as eroding the decision-making power of democratically elected governments.
7. Emergency Powers and Governance:
The framing of climate change as an existential emergency can lead to the invocation of emergency powers or extraordinary measures by governments. While sometimes necessary, these measures can be at odds with democratic processes if they lack transparency, accountability, or are extended indefinitely.
8. Policy Myopia: A singular focus on global temperature:
can lead to policy decisions that neglect other crucial aspects of environmental health and human welfare. For example, policies aimed solely at reducing temperature rise might not adequately address issues like air and water pollution, which have immediate and significant impacts on human health.
Format of The Political Climate
Most people who are interested in the details of climate change and science do not have all day to scroll X/Twitter or plumb the depths of the Internet to stay updated.
This publication will serve a few purposes:
Provide a forum for longer think pieces and essays on topics germane to the political climate.
Real-time updates via X (@policlimate) that focus on the media, events, and opinions underlying the Political Climate.
Provide valuable context outside of the disinfomation/misinformation gatekeepers or fact-checkers.
Emailed updates would be on the order of 2 per day [mid-morning and late afternoon] that include a rundown of the topics, news stories, and real-time reactions to current events.
There will be small snippets of content or updated newsletters that will not be sent to email in order to avoid blowing up your mailbox. Substack is rapidly evolving so it is hopeful that the website and App develops new features to operate like a traditional Wordpress-like website.
Will this be a distinctly partisan endeavor?
Not necessarily. The climate issue is not monolithic across the Republican and Democratic parties. Instead, there is significant overlap with liberals and conservatives on a multitude of issues. This is the space where we will operate. However, one should not be surprised that content will be geared to the underserved market of conservatives and moderates interested in the political climate.
Climate science coverage in the media is almost exclusively left of center, as we discussed before, with many journalists moonlighting as activists at their respective outlets. This is not helpful to an informed electorate. Corporate media seems to be in the tank for the left, so the coverage of various topics is highly controlled and either censored or suppressed.
Conservatives, independents need a cheat sheet or blueprint to discuss climate issues properly without bungling or sounding stupid. There is no reason to cede the science space to the left as that has not historically worked out very well. That being said, we do not need to be angry and demeaning as the leading climate change and policy communicators on the left who are often bad faith actors who traffic in conspiracies.
This platform will be critical of rank climate denial and doomerism.
You do not need to agree or engage on everything, just be aware of the 4 corners of the issue.
The current problem with the left is that criticisms of reckless green policy is just dismissed as denial, so there is no engagement on the issue, no debate — as Gore said the time for debate is over. However, there really was not a debate on the best road forward on most climate policy, instead it was a haphazard and headlong rush to renewable energy and urgency associated with climatism.
Inspiration for the Political Climate
The lead editor of this newsletter Dr. Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue on X) has spent the last 25-years researching and analyzing the political climate from a scientific and historical point of view. He has extensive experience in research, forecasting, and analysis of the Earth’s climate mainly through several private sector weather companies including his current venture Weather Trader (Substack) which has almost 3,000 subscribers (free & paying) receiving daily weather updates from an advanced data perspective.
Dr. Maue’s introduction to the “climate wars” began during his graduate work at Florida State working on hurricane climatology during the disastrous 2004-2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons. More than 20-years ago, the scientific discourse occurred on blogs like Climate Audit and Watt’s Up With That and RealClimate. It has since primarily moved to Twitter/X. In mid-2010s, Dr. Maue worked as an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute with the late Pat Michaels on climate science policy issues but included a lot of data analysis for white papers and comments to pending federal regulations. Then in September 2020, Dr. Maue briefly joined NOAA and OSTP as a Trump administration political appointee until the end of the administration on January 20, 2021.
Over the years, Dr. Maue has worked with several colleagues in the climate policy arena including Dr. Roger Pielke Jr of The Honest Broker who is wickedly smart and insightful as well as an engaging and successful writer on a wide range of topics. Mike Bastasch at the Daily Caller is an editor and journalist with the most institutional knowledge of the Political Climate in the business today. Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) is the most prolific climate skeptic on the right side of the aisle and highly influential in policy circles on air pollution, climate, and other science issues.
On Twitter/X, Dr. Maue posts engaging content including weather maps, climate data, and commentary on current events. Dr. Maue urged the usage of “reanalysis” data like JRA55 and ERA5 more than 15-years ago as a rapid way to update the daily temperature record using more advanced techniques. He has been cited in countless mainstream news articles as an expert in hurricanes and other weather events.
Why Theodore Roosevelt?
Without a doubt, President Roosevelt was America’s foremost conservationist presidents but also served in the early 20th Century, a time when rapid industrialization and wealth creation cemented the United States as a world superpower. Many important aspects of the 1908 Republican Party Platform could be adopted today.
Example Topics
Newly published science papers on climate topics
Climate attribution is not ready for prime time and often misleading
Analysis of speeches and quotes from national political figures
Renewable Energy policy and the intersection with climate policy e.g. ESG, LNG, oil, and agriculture
Extreme weather events like hurricanes, polar vortex, droughts, fires, floods, heat waves
Narrative analysis with implications for the 2024 election
Political polling on topics related to climate
Doomerism in the media especially on X
Climate activism groups and protests
Fact checking wild claims about the weather and climate
Elon Musk and Tesla
Artificial Intelligence and the environment
So who is running The Political Climate?
Currently, Dr. Ryan Maue is the primary author and lead editor of content as of February 1, 2024, but that is hopeful to expand as the scope of this newsletter broadens into Podcast and video content. Dr. Maue has a large Twitter/X following of folks who have provided motivation, encouragement, and countless invaluable contributions to his work over the past 15-years and hopes for a similar experience with The Political Climate. Welcome aboard!